The Hidden Costs of “Almost Graduating”
Across America, thousands of students make it all the way to their junior or senior year in college—only for their journey to be derailed before graduating. These are not students who lack drive, ability, or discipline. They’ve completed most of their coursework in cognitively-demanding fields like engineering, computer science, or cybersecurity. Yet despite being so close to the finish line, they leave without a degree.
Why? Not because they’ve failed academically, but because they can’t pay an unexpected bill
At Last Mile, we see these stories every day. Students balancing jobs, family responsibilities, and full course loads suddenly face an unexpected car repair, a delayed scholarship disbursement, or the simple exhaustion of financial aid that runs out before the final semester can be completed. These small gaps have outsized consequences—not just for the student, but for families, industries, and the economy.
The costs of “almost graduating” ripple far beyond campus
The Wasted Investment
Every college degree represents years of shared investment. Individuals and families pour in savings and sacrifice. Taxpayers contribute billions each year through Pell Grants, subsidized loans, and institutional funding. Universities themselves commit teaching, advising, and infrastructure resources to educate each student.
When a student is knocked off course in the final stretch, that entire investment is left unfinished. Research shows that each unfinished STEM degree represents an estimated $630,000 in wasted sunk costs from families, institutions, and public dollars. Multiply that by the estimated 13,800 students in tech and engineering majors who stop out every year, and the annual loss quickly climbs into the billions.
It’s a devastating inefficiency: America pays the bill for 90% of the journey, then walks away before seeing the payoff.
The National Picture: Debt Without Degrees
This problem doesn’t just affect STEM students. Nationally, more than 41 million Americans have started college but left without a degree. Many carry significant student loan debt despite lacking the credential that would allow them to pay it back.
This is the cruelest version of sunk cost: individuals burdened with the expense of higher education but without the economic mobility that comes with finishing. They carry the debt but miss the degree. That loss doesn’t just impact individuals—it suppresses workforce participation, consumer spending, and the economic strength of entire communities.
The Industry Talent Shortage
The stakes are even higher when you consider the industries these students are preparing to enter. Fields like semiconductors, data centers, AI, and cybersecurity already face critical workforce shortages.
The Semiconductor Industry Association projects the U.S. will fall short by 67,000 semiconductor workers by 2030. Cybersecurity alone has more than 700,000 unfilled positions nationwide. Every student who is forced off track represents another skilled worker that industries desperately need.
When students “almost graduate” but can’t finish, we lose not only the individual’s potential—but also the future innovations, productivity, and economic security their work would have generated. The lost opportunity compounds across entire sectors.
The Personal Toll
Behind every statistic is a student who has invested years of effort only to walk away without the credential that makes it all count.
Stopping out just shy of graduation has lasting consequences. Without a degree, students earn $32,500 less in their first year of work compared to their graduating peers. Over a lifetime, the difference compounds into more than $2.4 million in lost earnings.
Worse, the burden of student debt remains. Loans don’t disappear just because a degree was left unfinished. Many “almost graduates” are stuck in repayment with no credential to increase their earning potential, placing additional strain on individuals and families already stretched thin.
The psychological impact can be equally damaging. Students who’ve persisted for years, often against immense odds, internalize the stop-out as a personal failure—even though the system failed them. Dreams shrink. Opportunities narrow. Futures are put on hold indefinitely.
The Solution: A Real-Time Safety Net
The good news is that this problem is solvable. The financial gaps that cause students to stop out are often surprisingly small. At Last Mile, our average award is less than $3,000—a fraction of the sunk costs already invested in each student, and minuscule compared to the lifetime value of a completed degree.
For funders, that’s an extraordinary return on investment:
Every $1 invested generates $246 in social return.
A $3,000 investment unlocks an additional $32,500 in first-year salary for a graduate.
Each degree saved represents nearly $8,500 in taxpayer savings.
Fixing the flaws in traditional financial aid—underestimated cost of attendance, scholarship displacement, the myth of merit—will take years of policy reform. Students don’t have that kind of time
What’s At Stake
In short: for the cost of streaming and internet access for a year, we can convert an “almost graduate” into a career-ready professional, fueling industries and strengthening communities.
Until then, we need models that meet students where they are, with resources that respond in real time. That’s what Last Mile delivers: a proven, scalable safety net that transforms unfinished degrees into workforce-ready graduates.
Every unfinished degree is not just a lost opportunity for one student—it’s a loss for all of us. It’s wasted public dollars, lost industry talent, and diminished community strength. But with timely, targeted support, we can turn those losses into wins.
Interested in being part of the solution? Learn more about how you can invest in Last Mile’s growing impact and help turn “almost there” into graduation.