SOCIAL ROI
Last Mile invests an average of under $3,000 to keep a near-graduation STEM student on track. Over the next decade, that intervention generates an estimated $45 in economic value for every fully loaded dollar invested. Here is the math behind the return.
A small award. A 45× return.
James Bedford, MBA · Sarah A. Outland, PhD
THE HEADLINE
The return is large because the intervention is precise.
A modest award arrives after years of educational investment, when a student is close to converting that investment into a STEM degree and career. This report measures what happens next: higher earnings and wealth for graduates, higher tax contributions and lower transfer costs for government, and an unusually strong return on philanthropic capital.
WHAT THE MODEL SHOWS
Six numbers tell the story.
HOW WE KNOW
Built to be challenged.
We start with what our graduates actually earn, compare it with what they’d likely earn without Last Mile, then trim the result intentionally so it is never overstated.
Every data source, assumption, formula, limitation, and sensitivity is documented in the full technical report.
THE CONSERVATIVE CHOICE
474× is possible. 45× is defensible.
A conventional calculation divides lifetime earnings by award size and produces a 474× return. Last Mile reports 45.0× instead, after five layers of conservatism reduce the headline by roughly 90%.
The reported return claims only the value Last Mile can reasonably attribute to the award, not every dollar a graduate will earn.
FOR GRADUATES
The degree changes the earnings trajectory.
By year 10, the model projects $82,000 in cumulative savings for a Last Mile graduate, compared with $19,000 for the counterfactual, with the graduate’s student loans paid off by year eight.
FOR THE PUBLIC
The award pays the public back, too.
A student who leaves college without a degree is estimated to receive $16,772 in net government transfers in year one.
A Last Mile STEM graduate is a net fiscal contributor. That swing makes the model effectively self-financing from a public-finance perspective.
THE OPPORTUNITY
Scale the intervention. Compound the return.
If Last Mile reached 9,800 students a year for a decade, the model projects:
21.8x weighted portfolio social return on investment.
For every dollar invested, the model projects about $21.80 in combined value to graduates and the public.
These figures are an order-of-magnitude illustration, not a precise forecast. They assume constant per-student economics, reach 70% of the estimated addressable market, and give later cohorts fewer years to accrue returns.
THE TAKEAWAY
The highest-return investment may be the one already almost complete.
By the time Last Mile intervenes, students and institutions have already invested years, tuition dollars, and public resources in a STEM degree. A relatively small, precisely timed award protects that investment and converts it into a completed credential, stronger earnings, and long-term public value.
The model is conservative by design. The conclusion is still unmistakable: completion funding is an unusually efficient use of philanthropic capital.
FOR FUNDERS, POLICYMAKERS, RESEARCHERS & PRESS
Cite this research
Bedford, J., & Outland, S.A. (2026). Targeted Awards, Outsized Returns: Last Mile Education Fund’s Social Return on Investment. Last Mile Education Fund.
Permalink: lastmile-ed.org/research/social-return-on-investment
Contact: research@lastmile-ed.org
The talent pipeline doesn't need to be wider. It needs to stop leaking.
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