AOCIAL ROI
A small award. A 45× return.
Last Mile invests an average of $2,162 to keep a near-graduation STEM student on track. Over the next decade, that intervention generates an estimated $45 in economic value for every fully loaded dollar invested. Here is the math behind the return.
James Bedford, MBA · Sarah A. Outland, PhD
THE HEADLINE
The return is large because the intervention is precise.
A modest award arrives after years of educational investment, when a student is close to converting that investment into a STEM degree and career. This report measures what happens next: higher earnings and wealth for graduates, higher tax contributions and lower transfer costs for government, and an unusually strong return on philanthropic capital.
45.0× — 10-year weighted present-value social return
6.0× — weighted present-value return in year one
$2,883 — fully loaded cost per student
WHAT THE MODEL SHOWS
Six numbers tell the story.
$85,516 — benchmarked starting salary for a Last Mile graduate
$23,119 — starting earnings for the some-college-no-degree counterfactual
+$62,397 — year-one earnings gap protected by degree completion
$1.23M — cumulative gross earnings gap over 10 years
$478K — 10-year net fiscal benefit per graduate
166× — 10-year fiscal return on the fully loaded cost
HOW WE KNOW
Built to be challenged.
The model starts with real job titles from 3,558 Last Mile graduates, matched to Standard Occupational Classification codes and priced using Lightcast and Census ACS labor-market data. It compares those outcomes with a some-college-no-degree trajectory, then applies Last Mile’s confirmed 80% graduation rate, a 69% causal-attribution discount, fully loaded program costs, private-market discount rates, and a 10-year cap.
Every data source, assumption, formula, limitation, and sensitivity is documented in the full technical report.
THE CONSERVATIVE CHOICE
A conventional calculation divides lifetime earnings by award size and produces a 474× return. Last Mile reports 45.0× instead, after five layers of conservatism reduce the headline by roughly 90%.
474× is possible. 45× is defensible.
Modeling choice
Headline SROI
Returns counted
Causal attribution
Graduation adjustment
Time horizon
Cost denominator
Industry standard
474×
Nominal
None
None
Lifetime
Award only
Last Mile method
45.0×
Present-value discounted
69% discount
80% confirmed rate
10 years
$2,883 fully loaded
The reported return claims only the value Last Mile can reasonably attribute to the award, not every dollar a graduate will earn.
FOR GRADUATES
The degree changes the earnings trajectory.
$85,516 — Last Mile graduate starting salary
$23,119 — some-college-no-degree starting earnings
$887K — 10-year income and wealth gain per graduate
By year 10, the model projects $82,000 in cumulative savings for a Last Mile graduate, compared with $19,000 for the counterfactual, with the graduate’s student loans paid off by year eight.
FOR THE PUBLIC
The award pays the public back, too.
$27.5K — year-one public value per graduate
$478K — 10-year taxes and transfer savings
166× — 10-year fiscal return
A student who leaves college without a degree is estimated to receive $16,772 in net government transfers in year one. A Last Mile STEM graduate is a net fiscal contributor. That swing makes the model effectively self-financing from a public-finance perspective.
THE OPPORTUNITY
Scale the intervention. Compound the return.
If Last Mile reached 9,800 students a year for a decade, the model projects:
98,000 — students supported across 10 cohorts
$282.5M — total fully loaded philanthropic investment
$6.2B — combined weighted present-value return
$4.0B — private income and wealth gains
$2.2B — government revenue and transfer savings
21.8× — weighted portfolio SROI
These figures are an order-of-magnitude illustration, not a precise forecast. They assume constant per-student economics, reach 70% of the estimated addressable market, and give later cohorts fewer years to accrue returns.
THE TAKEAWAY
The highest-return investment may be the one already almost complete.
By the time Last Mile intervenes, students and institutions have already invested years, tuition dollars, and public resources in a STEM degree. A relatively small, precisely timed award protects that investment and converts it into a completed credential, stronger earnings, and long-term public value.
The model is conservative by design. The conclusion is still unmistakable: completion funding is an unusually efficient use of philanthropic capital.
FOR FUNDERS, POLICYMAKERS, RESEARCHERS & PRESS
CITE THIS RESEARCH
Bedford, J., & Outland, S.A. (2026). Targeted Awards, Outsized Returns: Last Mile Education Fund’s Social Return on Investment. Last Mile Education Fund.
Permalink: lastmile-ed.org/research/social-return-on-investment
Contact: research@lastmile-ed.org
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